I'm still at the data validation stage, waiting for the ABS to account for some differences. Nonetheless, from a total Australian assessment, 'anything vaguely associated with covid' adds up to less than the Australian states had been advising each week in their surveillance reports. Victoria had/has a practice of advising 'all cause' deaths as covid during aged care home covid outbreaks.
Excess death is complex, because there were strong 'anti-death' forces happening at the same time - lockdowns and flow on effects were generally beneficial - deaths to respiratory illnesses plummeted for people in their 70s/80s for example, and people in their 40s & 50s benefited - maybe working from home and low traffic on the roads was good for people - and neither covid nor vaccines has interfered with that better outlook. The people in their 90s died regardless. Despite those savings covid was only part of the excess. I bought the data to gain a very clear picture of the vaccine deaths, but I have to wait.
Very interesting work ML - your dedication is immense!
I was recently looking at Australian suicide/mental health statistics at a macro scale over the past few years. Perhaps that could be your next task in relation to these data? It would require someone with your keen eye.
I am concerned that these 'anti-death' lockdowns, while preserving life, prevented living, especially in the young. I can only speak from personal experience, but the mental illness in my circle over the past 4 years has been devastating.
Suicide is tricky because the determinations can take a long time to come through if they've gone to the coroner and aren't clear. I recently saw three determinations at the Vic Coroner of international students who'd died in 2020. I only read part of one of them, but these kids are often under a lot of pressure, pleasing their parents who are paying a lot of money.
There is another factor that played into 2020 in Victoria, through to 2021, is that a lot of people living on the streets, at risk, were housed in hotels and basically cared for. There were a lot of other social factors in play. Some people felt far happier in the lockdowns. I heard an account of a single mother on the phone who struggled hard to provide for her children. She didn't have money for going out, for kids birthdays, and for presents for her children's friends birthdays, and would normally feel like a terrible failure. But during the lockdown no-one was going out, no-one was having parties, and she felt normal, relief. The 'we're all in this together' probably help the social engagement of a lot of people. While people who needed personal agency for good mental health were slammed, others felt better.
The data I have available in the by-State by-age Cause of Death stats for each year are those that have been easily determined such that they can be numbered in the year of report. This is what I've gathered for WA on "Intentional self-harm" from the ABS Cause of Death by State. You'd find a lot more, and updated, at the WA Coroner
For comparison, here is Victoria, from the ABS, leading causes of death, by state, by age group (in the year of report). There seems to be a return in suicide levels in 2022, after a drop in 2020 and 2021 -don't know why. The coroner has noted an increase in suicides in the over-65s in 2022/23?, and doesn't know why.
Age group 15-24 (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022)
98, 86, 93, 89
Age group 25-34
138, 130, 132, 152
Age group 35-44
140, 131, 109, 125
Age group 45-54
125, 113, 127, 155
Age group 55-64
111, 110, 100, np (covid moved into the leading cause category, pushing out self-harm, but it will be less than 106))
Especially here: There seems to be a return in suicide levels in 2022
I think that's when the 'chickens come home to roost' (so to speak - back to the streets, the payments turned off etc. as you mentioned with the mum).
After the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a massive increase in suicides. People knew that they would never be going back to the 'old normal' again.
As you are a whiz with the coding, I also wonder: are they coding suicides as 'accidents' for social and political reasons?
Perhaps WA, the Hermit Kingdom, had some sort of interest in maintaining their reputation as the least covid state? (Just speculating here.)
As for Victoria, I can't begin to theorise about where they got the extra deaths from - though obviously the terror reign of Mad Dan didn't care that much about actual facts...
I've bought data before - it's been worth it :) - but the questions around the Victorian data trouble me. I saw the invoice had arrived just after I posted but I'd like some quantification from the ABS of accuracy, eg "within 5%" for 2022 due to coroner delay - something like that - because I actually want to use the numbers and they need to be quite firm. I don't want to be surprised 6 months later to find all the covid deaths have rolled in.
There are these two statements from federal government reports on "COVID-19 outbreaks in Australian [RACFs]" from December 2020...
"Victorian data is from the Public Health Events Surveillance System (PHESS). Case data for residential aged care facilities in all states except Victoria is collected by the Commonwealth Government."
"In Victoria, a death is reported when a person with COVID-19 dies during an active outbreak at an aged care facility, irrespective of the cause of death."
The latest reports don't have these lines but perhaps Victoria is still collecting and reporting on original channels in the same way.
What I don't understand is why the two reporting systems separate ~June 2022. If they were reporting 'all cause' deaths during outbreaks in aged care, why did it only start to go out of range in June 2022. Possibility it's the return of flu, where there might be a lot of residents dying of both infections within a single facility, only a few of whom are covid. And of course there are the dreaded vaccines that could be notionally included around that booster time of year. I ordered some flu & pneumonia data too so, when it get around to that I might have an explanation.
I'm not sure why the other states are able to come up with realistic advice numbers and Victoria can't. #MadDan
WA - yes, I think they have a bit invested, although they could've taken a different position and not reported all the 'with covid' deaths where there was a very clear underlying cause.
So how do the 'anything vaguely associated' deaths compare to overall excess?
I'm still at the data validation stage, waiting for the ABS to account for some differences. Nonetheless, from a total Australian assessment, 'anything vaguely associated with covid' adds up to less than the Australian states had been advising each week in their surveillance reports. Victoria had/has a practice of advising 'all cause' deaths as covid during aged care home covid outbreaks.
Excess death is complex, because there were strong 'anti-death' forces happening at the same time - lockdowns and flow on effects were generally beneficial - deaths to respiratory illnesses plummeted for people in their 70s/80s for example, and people in their 40s & 50s benefited - maybe working from home and low traffic on the roads was good for people - and neither covid nor vaccines has interfered with that better outlook. The people in their 90s died regardless. Despite those savings covid was only part of the excess. I bought the data to gain a very clear picture of the vaccine deaths, but I have to wait.
Very interesting work ML - your dedication is immense!
I was recently looking at Australian suicide/mental health statistics at a macro scale over the past few years. Perhaps that could be your next task in relation to these data? It would require someone with your keen eye.
I am concerned that these 'anti-death' lockdowns, while preserving life, prevented living, especially in the young. I can only speak from personal experience, but the mental illness in my circle over the past 4 years has been devastating.
People are alive, but finding trouble living.
Thanks again.
Suicide is tricky because the determinations can take a long time to come through if they've gone to the coroner and aren't clear. I recently saw three determinations at the Vic Coroner of international students who'd died in 2020. I only read part of one of them, but these kids are often under a lot of pressure, pleasing their parents who are paying a lot of money.
There is another factor that played into 2020 in Victoria, through to 2021, is that a lot of people living on the streets, at risk, were housed in hotels and basically cared for. There were a lot of other social factors in play. Some people felt far happier in the lockdowns. I heard an account of a single mother on the phone who struggled hard to provide for her children. She didn't have money for going out, for kids birthdays, and for presents for her children's friends birthdays, and would normally feel like a terrible failure. But during the lockdown no-one was going out, no-one was having parties, and she felt normal, relief. The 'we're all in this together' probably help the social engagement of a lot of people. While people who needed personal agency for good mental health were slammed, others felt better.
The data I have available in the by-State by-age Cause of Death stats for each year are those that have been easily determined such that they can be numbered in the year of report. This is what I've gathered for WA on "Intentional self-harm" from the ABS Cause of Death by State. You'd find a lot more, and updated, at the WA Coroner
Age group 15-24 (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022)
49, 58, 47, 39
Age group 25-34
97, 90, 72, 80
Age group 35-44
87, 63, 83, 75
Age group 45-54
74, 73, 60, 71
Age group 55-64
58, 51, 55, 49
For comparison, here is Victoria, from the ABS, leading causes of death, by state, by age group (in the year of report). There seems to be a return in suicide levels in 2022, after a drop in 2020 and 2021 -don't know why. The coroner has noted an increase in suicides in the over-65s in 2022/23?, and doesn't know why.
Age group 15-24 (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022)
98, 86, 93, 89
Age group 25-34
138, 130, 132, 152
Age group 35-44
140, 131, 109, 125
Age group 45-54
125, 113, 127, 155
Age group 55-64
111, 110, 100, np (covid moved into the leading cause category, pushing out self-harm, but it will be less than 106))
Very interesting!
Especially here: There seems to be a return in suicide levels in 2022
I think that's when the 'chickens come home to roost' (so to speak - back to the streets, the payments turned off etc. as you mentioned with the mum).
After the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a massive increase in suicides. People knew that they would never be going back to the 'old normal' again.
As you are a whiz with the coding, I also wonder: are they coding suicides as 'accidents' for social and political reasons?
There's not much signature at all....
WA
Age Group, 2020, 2021, 2022 (2019 had different codes)
Land Transport Accidents
15-24
25, 33, 30
25-34
33, 33, 28
35-44
28, 15, 29
45-54
20, 21, 39
Accidental Poisoning
15-24
7, 7, 12
25-34
30, 20, 28
35-44
60, 47, 46
45-54
52, 52, 61
That's dedicated indeed!
Perhaps WA, the Hermit Kingdom, had some sort of interest in maintaining their reputation as the least covid state? (Just speculating here.)
As for Victoria, I can't begin to theorise about where they got the extra deaths from - though obviously the terror reign of Mad Dan didn't care that much about actual facts...
I've bought data before - it's been worth it :) - but the questions around the Victorian data trouble me. I saw the invoice had arrived just after I posted but I'd like some quantification from the ABS of accuracy, eg "within 5%" for 2022 due to coroner delay - something like that - because I actually want to use the numbers and they need to be quite firm. I don't want to be surprised 6 months later to find all the covid deaths have rolled in.
There are these two statements from federal government reports on "COVID-19 outbreaks in Australian [RACFs]" from December 2020...
"Victorian data is from the Public Health Events Surveillance System (PHESS). Case data for residential aged care facilities in all states except Victoria is collected by the Commonwealth Government."
"In Victoria, a death is reported when a person with COVID-19 dies during an active outbreak at an aged care facility, irrespective of the cause of death."
The latest reports don't have these lines but perhaps Victoria is still collecting and reporting on original channels in the same way.
What I don't understand is why the two reporting systems separate ~June 2022. If they were reporting 'all cause' deaths during outbreaks in aged care, why did it only start to go out of range in June 2022. Possibility it's the return of flu, where there might be a lot of residents dying of both infections within a single facility, only a few of whom are covid. And of course there are the dreaded vaccines that could be notionally included around that booster time of year. I ordered some flu & pneumonia data too so, when it get around to that I might have an explanation.
I'm not sure why the other states are able to come up with realistic advice numbers and Victoria can't. #MadDan
WA - yes, I think they have a bit invested, although they could've taken a different position and not reported all the 'with covid' deaths where there was a very clear underlying cause.